Longitudinal determinants of thriving in Puerto Rican climate crisis migrants on the U.S. mainland: A structural equation model

Maria Duque, Duyen H. Vo, Pablo Montero-Zamora, Cory L. Cobb, Sumeyra Sahbaz, Beyhan Ertanir, Tara Bautista, Lawrence G. Watkins, Yara Acaf, Miracle Ashley Macias, Aigerim Alpysbekova, Maria Fernanda Garcia, Jose Rodriguez, Melissa M. Bates, Ivonne A. Calderon, Mildred M. Maldonado-Molina, John B. Bartholomew, Miguel Pinedo, Tae Kyoung Lee, Christopher P. Salas-Wright and Seth J. Schwartz

Social Science & Medicine, 2025, vol. 366, issue C

Abstract: Climate-related disasters pose significant risks to mental health and well-being globally. Individuals from disaster-prone regions, such as Puerto Rico, are at even greater risk. The devastating effects of recurrent hurricanes, compounded with pre-existing structural disparities (e.g., poverty and corruption), can further exacerbate psychosocial vulnerabilities and drive mass migration to the United States mainland. Most research on mental health among climate migrants focuses on risks, whereas promotive factors such as thriving are often overlooked. In the present study, we estimated a longitudinal structural equation model to examine the predictive effect of psychological thriving (i.e., optimism, life satisfaction) on sociocultural thriving (i.e., income, happiness, comfort, job satisfaction), mental distress (i.e., internalizing symptoms, post-traumatic stress) and cultural stressors using three waves of data from 319 adult Hurricane Maria survivor migrants (HMSMs) who relocated to the U.S. mainland between 2017 and 2020. We also examined the mediating effect of prosocial behavior and collective efficacy in this association. Our findings indicate various direct, simple mediation, and serial mediation paths between baseline psychological thriving and outcomes. Life satisfaction and collective efficacy mediated most of the predicted indirect pathways. These results suggest that, despite facing complex challenges, HMSMs are not only adapting to their mainland communities but are also thriving.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117615

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