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Large deviations for empirical measures of self-interacting Markov chains

Amarjit Budhiraja, Adam Waterbury and Pavlos Zoubouloglou

Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2025, vol. 186, issue C

Abstract: Let Δo be a finite set and, for each probability measure m on Δo, let G(m) be a transition kernel on Δo. Consider the sequence {Xn} of Δo-valued random variables such that, given X0,…,Xn, the conditional distribution of Xn+1 is G(Ln+1)(Xn,⋅), where Ln+1=1n+1∑i=0nδXi. Under conditions on G we establish a large deviation principle for the sequence {Ln}. As one application of this result we obtain large deviation asymptotics for the Aldous et al. (1988) approximation scheme for quasi-stationary distributions of finite state Markov chains. The conditions on G cover other models as well, including certain models with edge or vertex reinforcement.

Keywords: Reinforced random walks; Quasi-stationary distributions; Empirical measure; Large deviations; Stochastic approximations; Self-interacting Markov chains; Multiscale systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104640

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