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Genealogical transition in the noisy N-Branching Random Walk. How stronger selection may promote genetic diversity

Emmanuel Schertzer and Alejandro H. Wences

Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2026, vol. 199, issue C

Abstract: We consider an extension of the noisy N-Branching Random Walk that models the evolution of a population subject to natural selection. We show the existence of a critical value for the noise which separates the limiting genealogical structure into two regimes, which we respectively call the semi-pulled and the fully-pulled regimes. In the fully-pulled regime, the genealogy converges to a discrete time Poisson-Dirichlet coalescent. In the semi-pulled regime, the genealogy converges to the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. We discuss some interesting biological consequences of this result. In particular, our model predicts a non-monotone relation between the selection strength and the effective population size.

Keywords: Population genetics; Coalescent theory; Noisy N-branching Random Walk; Pulled fitness waves and their genealogies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2026.104975

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