On the optimal stopping of randomized Gauss-Markov bridges

A. Azze and D’Auria, B.

Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2026, vol. 201, issue C

Abstract: We consider the optimal stopping problem for a Gauss–Markov process conditioned to adopt a prescribed terminal distribution. By applying a time-space transformation, we show it is equivalent to stopping a Brownian bridge pinned at a random endpoint with a time-dependent payoff. We prove that the optimal rule is the first entry into the stopping region, and establish that the value function is Lipschitz continuous on compacts via a coupling of terminal pinning points across different initial conditions. Comparison theorems then order value functions according to likelihood-ratio ordering of terminal densities, and when these densities have bounded support, we bound the optimal boundary by that of a Gauss–Markov bridge. Although the stopping boundary need not be the graph of a function in general, we provide sufficient conditions under which this property holds, and identify strongly log-concave terminal densities that guarantee this structure. While the main exposition focuses on the identity gain function, these core results extend to more general time-space gain functions under regularity conditions. Numerical experiments illustrate representative boundary shapes.

Keywords: Brownian bridge; Diffusion bridge; Gauss–Markov processes; Optimal stopping; Time-inhomogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2026.105034

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