On distribution of the leadership time in counting votes and predicting winners

Czesław Stępniak

Statistics & Probability Letters, 2015, vol. 106, issue C, 109-112

Abstract: In two-candidate election the votes are counted in random order. Suppose that candidate A was the leader until the 9th vote. How may we use this information in predicting the future winner? To this aim we derive distributions of the first leadership time both for the winner and loser. Our conclusion is rather surprising.

Keywords: Two-candidate election; Ballot problem; Leadership time distribution; Predicting winners (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2015.06.028

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