The Monte Carlo computation error of transition probabilities

Adam Nielsen

Statistics & Probability Letters, 2016, vol. 118, issue C, 163-170

Abstract: In many applications one is interested to compute transition probabilities of a Markov chain. This can be achieved by using Monte Carlo methods with local or global sampling points. In this article, we analyze the error by the difference in the L2 norm between the true transition probabilities and the approximation achieved through a Monte Carlo method. We give a formula for the error for Markov chains with locally computed sampling points. Further, in the case of reversible Markov chains, we will deduce a formula for the error when sampling points are computed globally. We will see that in both cases the error itself can be approximated with Monte Carlo methods. As a consequence of the result, we will derive surprising properties of reversible Markov chains.

Keywords: Reversible Markov chain; Monte Carlo methods; Computation error; Measurable state space; Markov operator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715216300931
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:stapro:v:118:y:2016:i:c:p:163-170

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2016.06.011

Access Statistics for this article

Statistics & Probability Letters is currently edited by Somnath Datta and Hira L. Koul

More articles in Statistics & Probability Letters from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().