Approximating win-loss probabilities based on the overall and event-free survival functions

Lu Mao

Statistics & Probability Letters, 2025, vol. 226, issue C

Abstract: Despite its growing popularity for hierarchical composite endpoints, the win ratio poses a challenge for meta-analysis, as earlier studies typically do not report such measures. In the absence of subject-level data, we show how to approximate it using component-specific Kaplan–Meier curves that are almost universally reported. Given these marginal distributions, we infer the between-component association, as measured by the cross ratio, using summary data on event counts and rates. This leads to approximations of the win-loss probabilities that align closely with raw data-based estimates, as demonstrated in simulations and two case studies. The methodology is implemented in the winkm R package, publicly available on GitHub at https://lmaowisc.github.io/winkm.

Keywords: Cross ratio; Hierarchical composite endpoints; Identifiability; Kaplan-Meier curves; Meta-analysis; Win ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2025.110478

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