Maximizing the probability of pest extinction on a stochastic pest-predator model

Wenyaw Chan

Statistics & Probability Letters, 1996, vol. 30, issue 3, 265-270

Abstract: A pest-predator stochastic model proposed by Bartoszynski (1977) is adapted to cover control variables. The model assumes that the pest population is influenced by predation and can only increase at breeding seasons while the predator population follows a linear birth-and-death process. This paper extends the model by writing the part of death rate of the pest which is unrelated to predation as a function of pesticides level. Under the assumption of a fixed and non-transferable budget, this paper seeks to find an optimal policy for determining the best allocation of resources between purchasing new predators and purchasing the pesticide. The criterion for optimization is to maximize the probability of extinction for the pest population by a target time.

Keywords: Birth-and-death; process; Extinction; probability; Optimal; policy; Pest-predator; model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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