A transformation useful for bounding a forecast

Patrick A. Thompson

Statistics & Probability Letters, 1989, vol. 8, issue 5, 469-475

Abstract: In many problems, the statistician may believe it unlikely that the data will ever exceed a certain value or drop below another, although there are no theoretical limits on the variable being modeled. This information could, and perhaps should, be used in statistical modeling; if not, unbelievable forecasts and forecast intervals may result. This paper discussed a generalized logistic transformation that may be used to impose these subjective bounds on the variable. Two methods for computing the limits are presented, as well as a simple alternative to one technique. An example illustrates how the transformation works in practice.

Keywords: transformations; subjective; forecasts; Bayesian; inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1989
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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