EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The declining share of agricultural employment in China: How fast?

Jesus Felipe (jesus.felipe@dlsu.edu.ph), Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy and Matteo Lanzafame

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2016, vol. 37, issue C, 127-137

Abstract: Between 1962 and 2013, China's agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of China's aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors. This is confirmed by the data and hence we use our model for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in China will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). We also estimate that China's employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today's rich economies, by 2042–2048.

Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16000035
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:streco:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:127-137

DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2016.01.002

Access Statistics for this article

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics is currently edited by F. Duchin, H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann, R. Scazzieri, A. Steenge and B. Verspagen

More articles in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu (repec@elsevier.com).

 
Page updated 2025-03-22
Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:127-137