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Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles

Kunihiko Esashi, Tamotsu Onozaki (), Yoshitaka Saiki and Yuzuru Sato

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2018, vol. 44, issue C, 68-76

Abstract: Empirical studies often conclude that multi-regional business cycles exhibit intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization of each regional fluctuations. In this study, we robustly observe this behavior (called chaotic itinerancy) in a model of multi-regional business cycles, in which all regions of a national economy are homogeneous and connected through producers’ behavior based on the average level announced by the government. Although a producer very slowly adjusts his/her output towards the average level, regional business cycles begin to synchronize because of the entrainment effect. Moreover, when a producer emphasizes the profit maximization more and when puts more weight on the average level in his/her decision-making, the economy is more likely to exhibit such intermittent transition. Further, it is clarified that behind intermittent transition exist cycles among periodic orbits with different number of unstable directions.

Keywords: Regional business cycle; Nonlinear dynamics; Synchronization; Globally coupled map; Chaotic itinerancy; Intermittency; Unstable dimension variability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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