Credit risk migration rates modelling as open systems II: A simulation model and IFRS9-baseline principles

S. Landini, M. Uberti and S. Casellina

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2019, vol. 50, issue C, 175-189

Abstract: In 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the current International Financial Reporting Standards 9 – Financial Instruments (IFRS9) that draw new lines for an ex-ante, reliable, unified and well-balanced credit risk assessment. Among others, two principles are of interest to this paper: that of segmented and prospective estimation of expected credit losses. Within the frame of a micro-simulation approach, this paper focuses on these issues while considering the evolution of a bank portfolio. The paper presents an algorithmic procedure developed on a realistic dynamic credit risk migration rates modelling of a portfolio as an open system with entries and exits that is consistent with the segmented and prospective IFRS9 principles. Although operating at the aggregate level of the migration matrix, combining accounting principles inspired to those of the IFRS9-baseline with the open systems modelling, the main conclusion is that it allows for a more reliable provision and ex-ante and forward-looking estimation of expected losses.

Keywords: Credit risk; Migration rates models; Micro-simulation; Expected loss; Accounting standards (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C18 C53 C63 E47 G11 G13 G17 G18 G21 G24 G28 G31 G34 G38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X19301092
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:streco:v:50:y:2019:i:c:p:175-189

DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.06.013

Access Statistics for this article

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics is currently edited by F. Duchin, H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann, R. Scazzieri, A. Steenge and B. Verspagen

More articles in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().