Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!

Michael Donadelli, Licia Ferranna, Ivan Gufler and Antonio Paradiso

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2021, vol. 57, issue C, 214-224

Abstract: This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeconomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we show that the macroeconomic effect of epidemics reflects the socio-economic features characterizing different eras. A mapping between past epidemic scenarios and the COVID-19-induced environment can thus lead to misleading outcomes. We believe our evidence to be of general interest and key for policymakers forced to implement rapid and effective policies.

Keywords: Epidemics; socio-economic characteristics; capitalism phases; macroeconomic scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 I10 N10 N40 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X21000242
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:streco:v:57:y:2021:i:c:p:214-224

DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002

Access Statistics for this article

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics is currently edited by F. Duchin, H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann, R. Scazzieri, A. Steenge and B. Verspagen

More articles in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().