 Long-term analysis of Kaldor's law applied to Brazil (1909-2020)Natalia I. Doré and Eliane Araujo Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2025, vol. 74, issue C, 147-157 Abstract: Nicholas Kaldor asserts that the industry is a crucial factor in promoting economic growth, suggesting that the sector's increasing returns to scale significantly impact the overall productivity of the economy. This paper assesses the relevance of Kaldor's laws for the Brazilian economy, offering new insights into their applicability through a novel methodological approach. The study contributes to the literature by employing Markov Regime-Switching (MS) models to capture nonlinear dynamics in output, productivity, and employment growth in the manufacturing sector, over a very long-term period (1909–2020). By distinguishing between lower and higher growth regimes, the analysis demonstrates that Kaldor's laws remain valid in the Brazilian context. The findings underscore the industrial sector's critical role in promoting economic growth and enhancing productivity and employment, while revealing significant non-linearities in these relationships. Keywords: Economic growth; Brazil; Structural change; Industrialization; Markov (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:147-157 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.004 Access Statistics for this article Structural Change and Economic Dynamics is currently edited by F. Duchin, H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann, R. Scazzieri, A. Steenge and B. Verspagen More articles in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics from Elsevier |
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