Assessing the dynamics of supply risks in the global polysilicon trade network: A multidimensional analysis from 2000 to 2022

Chao Wang, Lei Zhang, Xiaoqian Hu and Qiuyun Zhao

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2025, vol. 74, issue C, 991-1007

Abstract: The global polysilicon trade network (GPSTN) has evolved into an increasingly intricate system, shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental challenges, and health crises, intensifying concerns over energy security. As a critical material for photovoltaic cells, polysilicon constitutes an indispensable component for the global transition towards renewable energy. However, quantitative assessments of country-specific vulnerabilities during polysilicon supply disruptions remain limited. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the GPSTN from 2000 to 2022, utilizing an improved cascading failure model and a comprehensive assessment framework. The framework quantifies countries' roles as risk initiators, transmitters, and vulnerable recipients through three novel indicators: destructiveness, transmissibility, and vulnerability. The analysis reveals the United States' persistent dominance in destructiveness since 2000, the escalating destructiveness of Asian countries, the pronounced transmissibility of China and the United States, and the heightened vulnerability of Japan and China stemming from their import dependence. This multidimensional approach elucidates country-specific roles during supply disruptions and advances targeted recommendations for policymakers to strengthen supply chain resilience and stability. The findings demonstrate the critical importance of considering multiple dimensions when evaluating a country's position in the polysilicon trade network and highlight the need for customized risk mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Global polysilicon trade network; Supply risk assessment; Cascading failures; Network vulnerability; Dynamic risk propagation model; Renewable energy transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:991-1007

DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.002

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