Assessment of the gap and (non-)Internet users evolution based on population biology dynamics

Ioannis Neokosmidis, Nikolaos Avaritsiotis, Zoe Ventoura and Dimitris Varoutas ()

Telecommunications Policy, 2015, vol. 39, issue 1, 14-37

Abstract: The evolution of Internet and non-Internet users as well as the dynamics of their divide is studied using population biology concepts. Users׳ evolution and future trends are estimated by applying Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters of the proposed model are determined by both an analytical and a simulation method. The presented model is applied to two cases; Greece and Lithuania. The accuracy of the obtained results is confirmed through actual data. Internet users are constantly increasing while they outperform non-users in the last years. It is confirmed that the maximum growth rate of Internet users in both countries coincides to periods with effective regulation, broadband promotion, provision of bundle products and alternative operators׳ investments. Model׳s estimation and forecasting ability can be used as a valuable tool for decision and policy makers. Several policy guidelines are provided helping to achieve higher penetration levels.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony; Divide; Ecological evolution; Forecasting; Internet; Policy; Population dynamics; Swarm optimization; Users (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2014.10.006

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