Breaking the cycle: Can information and communication technologies reverse the trend of premature deindustrialization in Africa?

Min-Dong Zhu, Mounira Raddaoui and Younchawou Ngouwouo

Telecommunications Policy, 2026, vol. 50, issue 1

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on premature deindustrialization, a phenomenon where the decline of the manufacturing sector occurs at a much lower income level than historically observed in developed countries. We measure ICT development through three specific indicators: internet penetration, mobile phone subscription rate, and fixed broadband connections. The study is based on a panel of 50 African countries covering the period 2000–2021. The empirical strategies employed include probit and instrumental variable probit (IV-Probit) models to address endogeneity. Contrary to the thesis that ICTs accelerate deindustrialization by promoting reallocation towards the tertiary sector, our results show that ICT development can mitigate premature deindustrialization in Africa. These results remain robust to different specifications of the baseline model. Moreover, the mediation analysis reveals that this effect mainly passes through the promotion of innovation and the improvement of human capital. Policy recommendations have been provided.

Keywords: ICT; Premature deindustrialization; Industrialization; Mediation analysis; Africa; Panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2025.103087

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