Impact of financial/economic crisis on demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong

Haiyan Song, Shanshan Lin, Stephen F. Witt and Xinyan Zhang

Tourism Management, 2011, vol. 32, issue 1, 172-186

Abstract: The main objectives of this study are (1) to identify the factors that influence the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong and (2) to generate quarterly forecasts of that demand to assess the impact of the ongoing financial/economic crisis. The demand for four types of hotel room from the residents of nine major origin countries is considered, and forecasts are generated from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2015. Econometric approaches are employed to calculate the demand elasticities and their corresponding confidence intervals, which are then used to generate interval demand predictions. The empirical results reveal that the most important factors in determining the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong are the economic conditions (measured by income level) in the origin markets, the price of the hotel rooms and the ‘word of mouth’ effect. Demand for High Tariff A and Medium Tariff hotel rooms is estimated to have experienced negative annual growth in 2009 due to the influence of the financial/economic crisis, whereas that for High Tariff B hotel rooms is thought to have grown in 2009 after having decreased in 2008. The demand for tourist guesthouse rooms is expected to be the least affected by the crisis. Overall demand is predicted to recover gradually from 2010 onwards.

Keywords: Hotel demand forecasting; ADLM-ECM models; Quarterly forecasts; Long-run elasticity; Confidence interval (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517710000907

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:1:p:172-186

DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2010.05.006

Access Statistics for this article

Tourism Management is currently edited by Chris Ryan

More articles in Tourism Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().