EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

How will the opening of the Northern Sea Route influence the Suez Canal Route? An empirical analysis with discrete choice models

Hua Wang, Yiru Zhang and Qiang Meng

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018, vol. 107, issue C, 75-89

Abstract: The Arctic ice has been observed to be decreasing both in terms of extent and thickness since the 1950s in all seasons due to global warming. The retreat of the Arctic sea ice creates unprecedented opportunities to maritime shipping industry and opens the door for exploring new navigable shipping routes across the Arctic Ocean. The Northern Sea Route is of particular interest as it has the most favorable ice conditions among all transarctic routes and the Russia government has been actively encouraging international use of the sea route. This paper aims to quantitatively assess the impact of opening of the Northern Sea Route on the Suez Canal Route by means of discrete choice model. Industrial preferences and choices under different situations are gathered by a state preference survey. Logit models are then built based on choice data from the survey. Based on modeling results, scenario analyses are conducted to predict company’s choices under difference cases and thus some policy insights are put forward.

Keywords: Northern Sea Route; Suez Canal Route; Discrete choice modeling; Stated preference survey; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856417308728
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:75-89

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

 
Page updated 2018-08-04
Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:75-89