 A generalized dynamic discrete choice model for green vehicle adoptionYan Liu and Cinzia Cirillo Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018, vol. 114, issue PB, 288-302 Abstract: Much is happening in the automotive industry and new models are in the market or are expected to be available soon. At the same time, environmental awareness, new regulations for increased fuel efficiency, and the need to diminish greenhouse gas emissions make small vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles more competitive. As a consequence, vehicle characteristics and consumer decisions will change rapidly in the short and medium run. Accounting for the dynamic of the problem is important to correctly forecast green vehicle acceptance and to evaluate eco-friendly policies. This paper proposes a generalized dynamic discrete choice approach that models purchase behavior and forecasts future preferences in a finite time horizon setting. The framework allows one-time purchases, repeated purchases, univariate and multivariate diffusion processes that capture the evolution of vehicle characteristics and dynamics in the market conditions. The models proposed are estimated using stated preference data collected in Maryland. Results show that the formulation with repeated purchases successfully captures changes in the market shares, and that the multivariate diffusion process adopted to model the evolution of fuel prices further improves both model fit and the ability to recover peaks in demand. The estimated coefficients have been applied to test different policy scenarios, including changes in fuel prices, vehicle purchase prices, and improvements of car characteristics. These policies have a high impact on the adoption of electric cars and on their diffusion in the marketplace. Keywords: Dynamic discrete choice models; Consumer stopping problem; Auto-regressive process; Green vehicle adoption; Electric vehicle (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:114:y:2018:i:pb:p:288-302 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.034 Access Statistics for this article Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier |
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