Disruptions as catalysts to sustainability? Long-term responses in bike-sharing demand to disruptions during the pandemic

Zihao An, Caroline Mullen and Eva Heinen

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2025, vol. 199, issue C

Abstract: Understanding the implications of large-scale, prolonged disruptions on travel demand is important for informing the future design of resilient, efficient, and sustainable transport systems. Major disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic provide an opportunity to shed light on this issue. While contemporaneous responses in such demand amidst these disruptions have been well documented, insights into long-term post-disruption responses remain limited. This research gap challenges the development of a transport policy agenda capable of adapting to and mitigating the enduring consequences of disruptions. This research contributes to this topic by scrutinising long-term responses in bike-sharing demand to major disruptions during the pandemic. It investigates (1) the characteristics of these long-term responses; (2) the discrepancies between the long-term and contemporaneous responses to these disruptions; and (3) the associations of the long-term responses with docking stations’ contextual characteristics. We use 57-month bike-sharing demand data from London, spanning the pre-, amidst-, and post-disruption phases. Utilising pre-disruption data as a baseline and data in subsequent phases as comparisons, we apply Bayesian time-series models for counterfactual analysis to assess bike-sharing demand’s responses.

Keywords: Bike-sharing; Disruption; COVID-19; Long-term impact; Resilience; Post-pandemic era (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856425002319
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:199:y:2025:i:c:s0965856425002319

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104603

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().