Bike-sharing ridership prediction for network expansion using graph neural networks

Ghazaleh Mohseni, Mehdi Nourinejad and Peter Y. Park

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2026, vol. 203, issue C

Abstract: Ridership prediction in station-based bike-sharing services improves station planning, fleet management, and network design. Ridership inflow and outflow prediction at the station level has received significant attention through trip production and attraction models. However, station-to-station ridership has been studied less, despite its widespread applications in use cases such as bike-lane planning or fleet electrification. This study introduces a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to model station-to-station ridership using a customized Graph Sample and Aggregate framework to generate node embeddings and minimize the weighted Mean Squared Error for peak periods. The model incorporates the characteristics of the network, sociodemographic features, and station properties. We present the case study of Bikeshare Toronto to train and test the GNN model and benchmark it against other standard prediction methods. We show that the GNN outperforms linear regression, spatial regression, XGBoost, and artificial neural networks due to its ability to capture the impact of the network structure on ridership patterns. We incorporate the GNN model in five design scenarios focusing on urban core connectivity, suburban access, transit integration, equitable accessibility, and tourist hubs. Each scenario is strategically developed to prioritize and address unique urban challenges. To enhance the model’s application in real-world planning, we embedded the model in a web-based tool for the Cities of Vancouver and Toronto, allowing for further “what-if” scenario analysis in bike-sharing network planning.

Keywords: Bike-sharing; Graph neural network; Ridership prediction; Link weight prediction; Micro-mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856425003349
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:203:y:2026:i:c:s0965856425003349

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104701

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().