Examining the causal effects of teleworking on mode-specific travel frequencies: A double machine learning analysis using panel data

Cong Qi, Shuang Li and Xiucheng Guo

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2026, vol. 203, issue C

Abstract: Evaluating the impact of teleworking on travel behaviour is crucial to reduce car use and improve transport sustainability in transportation planning. However, the existing research is inadequate in two respects. Firstly, few studies have analysed the impact of teleworking on the travel behaviour of different modes of transport. Secondly, analyses based on cross-sectional data are unable to assess causal effects. This paper uses double machine learning models to estimate the causal effects of teleworking on travel frequency for five modes of transport (walking, train, public transport, car and bicycle) based on the longitudinal data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel for 2017–2019. K-means clustering is then used to identify the subgroups based on the estimated causal effects. The results show that teleworking contributes to an increase in the travel frequency for walking, trains, public transport and bicycles, but a decrease in car use. Additionally, two distinct clusters of teleworkers are identified. For telework-induced cyclist-oriented shifters, a negative causal effect is found between teleworking and the travel frequency of walking, train, public transport and car, while a positive causal effect is found for bicycle travel. For telework-induced public transport shifters, a positive causal effect is found between teleworking and the travel frequency of walking, train and public transport, while a negative causal effect is found for car and bicycle travel. These findings are valuable for implementing differentiated policies and improving transport sustainability for different types of teleworker.

Keywords: Teleworking; Travel behaviour; Causal effect; Double machine learning; K-means clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104742

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