Market reactions to new aircraft deployment in China’s domestic Aviation: A panel vector autoregression analysis of C919

Yonglei Jiang, Chunan Wang, Lei Wang, Shuli Liu and Anming Zhang

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2026, vol. 205, issue C

Abstract: This paper examines market responses to the commercial deployment of China’s domestically developed C919 jetliner across nine major domestic routes, using high-frequency flight-level data and public attention indices. By estimating a system-GMM panel vector autoregression (PVAR), we test whether a new aircraft type shifts demand and pricing. Results indicate a two-stage dynamic: attention spikes often precede selective entry; after entry, fare cuts and load factor gains are modest and short-lived, with behavior reverting as operations stabilize and scheduling/demand dominate. Carrier heterogeneity is present but does not overturn the qualitative pattern. This study provides empirical insights into the diffusion of emerging aircraft models and offers guidance for aviation management and industrial policy within the context of China’s evolving air transport system.

Keywords: C919; Aircraft introduction; PVAR; Flight-level market response; Public attention (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.104883

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