Analyzing policy acceptance for off-hour deliveries: a behavioral model of receivers considering social interaction attributes

Iván Serrano, Víctor Cantillo and José Holguín-Veras

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2026, vol. 207, issue C

Abstract: This paper proposes a Stakeholder Behavioral Modelling (SBM) framework that integrates Social Interaction Attributes (SIAs) into a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) to evaluate off-hour delivery (OHD) policies in urban logistics. Using stated preference data from 303 receiver firms in Barranquilla, Colombia, the model incorporates latent variables—Trust, Power, Infrastructure, and Insecurity—to capture how social and institutional contexts shape delivery time decisions. Scenario-based simulations derived from the estimated behavioral model assess the effects of financial and non-financial incentives on the probability of OHD adoption. Results show that SIAs significantly influence policy acceptance and that combined incentive packages can substantially reduce receivers’ inertia. By embedding stakeholder interactions into discrete choice modeling, the study provides a practical and robust tool for ex-ante policy evaluation. The approach offers actionable insights for designing sustainable urban freight policies and supports evidence-based logistics planning in contexts characterized by heterogeneity, informality, and security concerns.

Keywords: Urban freight transport; Stakeholder behavioral models; Social interaction attributes: power; Trust; Insecurity; Off-hour deliveries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.104958

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