Competition or supplement? Deciphering interaction between autonomous customized bus and public transit

Haoran Jiang, Shaozhi Hong, Zeling Wang, Xuanyu Liu and Qing Yu

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2026, vol. 211, issue C

Abstract: Autonomous Customized Buses (ABs) are emerging as a sustainable and flexible transport mode. However, their relationships and positioning within public transit have not been well quantified. This research utilizes AB travel order data in Wuxi, China, to investigate the temporal and spatial patterns of how ABs connect, compete with, or complement public transit (metro and conventional buses) and applies interpretable machine learning to explore the nonlinear interactions between them. The results reveal that trip distance has a significant impact on the operational positioning of ABs, and substantial temporal variability is observed in the relationships between ABs and public transit. Their role in intermodal connections grew over time, especially during peak hours. During off-peak times, ABs showed more competitive dynamics with both buses and metros, highlighting the need for time-specific strategies. Furthermore, factors such as distance from regional centers, density of regular bus stops, shopping accessibility, and road network density significantly influence the connection between ABs and metro systems, as well as their competitiveness with conventional buses. These relationships exhibit notable spatial heterogeneity, offering valuable insights for region-specific policy and planning of AB deployment.

Keywords: Autonomous customized buses; Public transit; Multivariate relationship; Non-linear effect; Policy and management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.105117

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