Creating synthetic baseline populations

Richard J. Beckman, Keith A. Baggerly and Michael D. McKay

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1996, vol. 30, issue 6, 415-429

Abstract: To develop activity-based travel models using microsimulation, individual travelers and households must be considered. Methods for creating baseline synthetic populations of households and persons using 1990 census data are given. Summary tables from the Census Bureau STF-3A are used in conjunction with the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) is applied to estimate the proportion of households in a block group or census tract with a desired combination of demographics. Households are generated by selection of households from the associated PUMS according to these proportions. The tables of demographic proportions which are exploited here to make household selections from the PUMS may be used in traditional modeling. The procedures are validated by creating pseudo census tracts from PUMS samples and considering the joint distribution of the size of households and the number of vehicles in the households. It is shown that the joint distributions created by these methods do not differ substantially from the true values. Additionally the effects of small changes in the procedure, such as imputation of additional demographics and adding partial counts to the constructed demographic tables are discussed in the paper.

Date: 1996
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