Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: methodology and application to train scheduling

Susan F. Hallowell and Patrick T. Harker

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1998, vol. 32, issue 4, 279-295

Abstract: In previous work, the authors developed an analytical line delay model for analyzing rail line-haul operations, and validated the model as a predictive tool. This paper examines the application of the model as a prescriptive tool for the generation of train schedules. A unique feature of the model is that it incorporates dynamic meet/pass priorities in order to approximate an optimal meet/pass planning process. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the application of the model for adjusting real-world schedules to improve on-time performance and reduce delay. This empirical work represents the first attempt to investigate the impacts of the scheduling methodology on on-time line-haul performance. The problems are based on historical data from a major North American railroad.

Date: 1998
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