 Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015Joyce Dargay and Dermot Gately Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1999, vol. 33, issue 2, 101-138 Abstract: This paper makes projections of the growth in the car and total vehicle stock to the year 2015, for OECD countries and a number of developing economies, including China, India, and Pakistan. The projections are based on an econometrically estimated model that explains the growth of the car/population ratio ('car ownership') as a function of per-capita income; a similar model is used for vehicle ownership. The model estimations are based on annual data for 26 countries over the period 1960-1992; it is the first study to include countries covering the full range of income levels, from lowest to highest. The models are dynamically specified, so that short- and long-run income elasticities of car and vehicle ownership are estimated. These income elasticities depend upon per-capita income, ranging from about 2.0, for low- and middle-income levels (that is, ownership grows twice as fast as income), down to zero, as ownership saturation is approached for the highest income levels. The similarities and differences among countries are embodied within the model specification, and the implications for the projections are analyzed. © Date: 1999 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:33:y:1999:i:2:p:101-138 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.