An analysis of household vehicle holding durations considering intended holding durations

Toshiyuki Yamamoto and Ryuichi Kitamura

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2000, vol. 34, issue 5, 339-351

Abstract: Household vehicle holding durations are examined in this study using panel data. Panel data enable the observation of changes in household vehicle holdings in discrete time periods. If the data set contains retrospective recall data which offer information on the types and the occurrence time points of the transactions since the last survey, direct observation of the transaction process along a continuous time axis is possible. Furthermore, if the data contain information on intentions for future transactions and actual outcomes of the intentions in later waves, the relationship between intended transactions and actual transactions can be observed. In this study, we develop models of actual vehicle holding durations and models of intended vehicle holding durations for the same set of vehicles. Comparing these two sets of models, the effects on household vehicle holding durations of changes in the household's plans for vehicle holding and unexpected events can be inferred. To represent unaccounted associations between intended vehicle holding durations and actual vehicle holding durations, vehicle specific error components are introduced into the duration models. A non-parametric approach is adopted in model estimation using mass points, which requires no assumption on the distribution of the error components.

Date: 2000
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