 Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting modelMuriel Beser Hugosson Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005, vol. 39, issue 6, 531-547 Abstract: Uncertainties related to demand model system outputs is an important issue in travel demand models. This paper focuses on uncertainties arisen from the fact that models are estimated on a sample of the population (and not the whole population). Forecasting systems can be quite complex, and may contain procedures that not easily permit analytically derived statistical measures of uncertainty. In this paper, the possibilities to use computer-intensive numerical methods to compute statistical measures for very complex systems, without being bound to an analytical approach, are explored. Here, the bootstrap method is used to obtain statistical measures of outputs produced by the forecasting system SAMPERS. The SAMPERS system is used by Swedish transport authorities. The bootstrap method is briefly described as well as the procedure of applying bootstrap on the SAMPERS system. Numerical results are presented for selected forecast results at different levels such as total traffic demand, origin-destination demand, train line demand and the demand on specific links. Also, the uncertainty related to the value of time estimate is analysed. Date: 2005 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:6:p:531-547 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier |
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