Spatial multi-criteria assessment of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe

Alyona Zubaryeva, Christian Thiel, Nicola Zaccarelli, Enrico Barbone and Arnaud Mercier

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2012, vol. 46, issue 9, 1477-1489

Abstract: This study presents a modeling approach that focuses on the identification of potential lead markets for electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) in Europe. It is based on a combination of several selected economic, social, environmental, and transport-related factors. The modeling approach is implemented in a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support process with fuzzy measures, enabling an assessment at different spatial and temporal scales under different EDV market penetration scenarios for Europe. The decision support system embeds a multi-criteria analysis based on selected expert-weighted market penetration drivers. The spatial scale chosen for the application of the decision support process are NUTS2 regions and cities within EU27 member states. Three scenarios are investigated, a business as usual, a moderate change, and an accelerated innovation scenario. Across the scenario horizon, it is shown how lead regions for EDVs will be changing in time between first early-adopter areas towards other long-term potential lead regions, depending on the evolution of the market drivers. The European regions and cities which will have a higher lead market potential score in 2020 and 2030 are identified. Our model solution suggests that with the business-as-usual scenario there will be a few insular lead market areas in 2020 and a relatively limited number of more connected lead regions in 2030. The other two scenarios explored suggest a more positive picture leading for the case of the 2030 accelerated scenario to a wide distribution of EDVs across most of Germany, the Netherlands, France, the UK, Ireland, and Italy. The cities of London, Madrid, Berlin and Rome would show high EDV sales under this scenario.

Keywords: Electric vehicles; AHP; Multi-criteria analysis; Lead markets; GIS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856412001000
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:9:p:1477-1489

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.05.018

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().