Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

Prateek Bansal and Kara M. Kockelman

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2017, vol. 95, issue C, 49-63

Abstract: Automobile manufacturers, transportation researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation-based fleet evolution framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015–2045) adoption levels of CAV technologies under eight different scenarios based on 5% and 10% annual drops in technology prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and changes in government regulations (e.g., mandatory adoption of connectivity on new vehicles). This simulation was calibrated with data obtained from a survey of 2167 Americans, regarding their preferences for CAV technologies (e.g., WTP) and their household’s annual vehicle transaction decisions.

Keywords: Connected and autonomous vehicles; Willingness to pay; Fleet evolution; Vehicle transaction decisions; Opinion survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (116)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.10.013

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