Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport

Matts Andersson, Karin Brundell-Freij and Jonas Eliasson ()

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2017, vol. 96, issue C, 101-118

Abstract: We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggregate railway growth has been fairly accurate, but commercial long-distance railway growth has been overpredicted, and the growth of subsidized intra-regional railway travel has been underpredicted (following vast unanticipated supply increases).

Keywords: Demand modeling; Forecast; Transport; Accuracy; Validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R41 R42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.12.008

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