Multivariate modeling and analysis of regional ocean freight rates
Fred Espen Benth and
Steen Koekebakker ()
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2018, vol. 113, issue C, 194-221
In this paper, we propose a new multivariate model for the dynamics of regional ocean freight rates. We show that a cointegrated system of regional spot freight rates can be decomposed into a common non-stationary market factor and stationary regional deviations. The resulting integrated CAR process is new to the literature. By interpreting the common market factor as the global arithmetic average of the regional rates, both the market factor and the regional deviations are observable which simplifies the calibration of the model. Moreover, forward contracts on the market factor can be traded in the Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) market. We calibrate the model to historical spot rate processes and illustrate the term structures of volatility and correlation between the regional prices and the market factor. Our model is an important contribution towards improved modelling and hedging of regional price risk when derivative market liquidity is concentrated in a single global benchmark.
Keywords: Freight rates; Autoregressive models in continuous time; Cointegration; Forward freight agreements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transe:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:194-221
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier. ... 600244/bibliographic
Access Statistics for this article
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review is currently edited by W. Talley
More articles in Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().