Projecting line-haul truck technology adoption: How heterogeneity among fleets impacts system-wide adoption

Ana Guerrero de la Peña, Navindran Davendralingam, Ali K. Raz, Daniel DeLaurentis, Gregory Shaver, Vivek Sujan and Neera Jain

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2019, vol. 124, issue C, 108-127

Abstract: A System-of-Systems engineering methodology is used to project truck technology adoption behaviors of heterogeneous fleets operating over the U.S. line-haul freight transportation system. A constrained mixed-integer linear program is formulated to optimize total cost of ownership of regional fleets given vehicle highway performance, fleet operations, cost of energy, and freight demand. A design-of-experiments demonstrates adoption sensitivity to economic parameters and individual fleet management constraints. Validation results demonstrate the importance of modeling fleet heterogeneity to achieving 90% prediction accuracy of historical adoption of three different vehicle architectures across 12 representative fleets over a 11-year period.

Keywords: Freight transportation; Technology adoption prediction; System-of-systems; Emerging technologies; Class 8 trucks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2018.12.017

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