Modelling bus bunching along a common line corridor considering passenger arrival time and transfer choice under stochastic travel time

Zhichao Wang, Rui Jiang, Yu Jiang, Ziyou Gao and Ronghui Liu

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2024, vol. 181, issue C

Abstract: This study examines bus bunching along a common-line corridor, considering crucial factors underexplored in existing literature, such as stochastic travel times, passenger arrival patterns, and passenger transfer behaviours. We first develop a bus motion model that captures the interaction between bus trajectories and passenger movement. Then we formulate a reliability-based passenger arrival time choice and a transfer choice model to characterise passengers’ behaviours. Afterwards, the bus motion model and the passenger choice models are integrated, and a Method of Successive Averages type iterative algorithm is developed to obtain stable passenger arrival patterns and transfer choices. Numerical experiments are carried out on a hypothetical network followed by a case with real-world data. Our findings demonstrate that a high transfer demand could amplify the propagation of bus bunching across lines along the common-line corridor. Meanwhile, a 50% increase in transfer demand leads to a 24%–30% rise in headway fluctuation. Furthermore, our results suggest that non-uniform passenger accumulation patterns can restore headway regularity as a result of coordinated passenger movement and bus motions, thus alleviating the persistent deterioration in bus bunching.

Keywords: Bus bunching; Common lines; Transit assignment; Reliability-based choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2023.103378

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