Analysis of the ripple effects of disruptions on multimodal container terminals operations: a System Dynamics approach

Jinglin Zhang, Xuri Xin, Zhigang Liao, Rameshwar Dubey, Trung Thanh Nguyen, Na Li and Zaili Yang

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2025, vol. 202, issue C

Abstract: Current port risk analyses primarily examine disruptions at an overall port level and their impacts on the broader supply chain. However, they generally overlook how disruptions originating from a specific local-level component within a multimodal port (e.g., liner shipping, feeder shipping, rail transport, trucking, or yard operations) can propagate internally and affect other operational sectors within the port. To address this gap, this study develops a novel microscopic-level System Dynamics (SD) model to quantify these internal ripple effects explicitly for the first time. Unlike existing macro-level SD studies in Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) that often oversimplify internal causal relationships, the proposed microscopic SD model accurately captures direct operational dependencies and interactions within a multimodal container terminal. Multiple disruption scenarios derived from real-world accident records and field investigations are simulated to assess their effects on port performance comprehensively. The results demonstrate that disruptions such as quay crane failures and yard traffic congestion significantly impair operational efficiency. Notably, yard congestion triggers considerable delays in seaside operations and leads to substantial container accumulation, illustrating the internal ripple effects clearly. Detailed scenario analysis enhances the understanding of these complex ripple effects, supporting robust and holistic strategies for improving port resilience.

Keywords: Multimodal Container Terminal; Port Disruption; System Dynamics; Ripple Effects; Resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554525003059
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transe:v:202:y:2025:i:c:s1366554525003059

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600244/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2025.104264

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review is currently edited by W. Talley

More articles in Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().