A market-based framework for CO2 emissions reduction in China's civil aviation industry

Dan Chen, Jianan Yin, Feng Xu, Chen Huang and Ziyu Li

Transport Policy, 2023, vol. 143, issue C, 150-158

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel aviation CO2 emissions reduction method by introducing a market-based incentive mechanism. An aviation carbon emissions prediction model is proposed to characterize both the microscopic flight dynamics and the macroscopic air traffic demand trend. Based on emissions prediction, a linear climate response model is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of the aviation carbon emissions. Finally, a market-based framework for aviation CO2 emissions reduction is established based on a two-phase carbon trading model, which provides a piecewise charge method through emission taxation and cap-and-trade. A case study is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework using a real-world dataset from the Hefei Air Traffic Control Zone in China. Three scenarios are defined to describe the possible development speed of sustainable aviation fuel application in the future: not applied, medium-speed development, and high-speed development. The results show that the carbon peak will be reached in 2025 in the high-speed development scenario, when the emission amount and associated environmental impact will be reduced by 23.7% and 22.3%, respectively. Thus, the market-based framework proposed in this paper can effectively reduce aviation CO2 emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming.

Keywords: Air transportation; Aviation CO2 emissions prediction; Climate change; Market-based emissions reduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.09.018

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