License plate lottery vs charging station density in electric vehicle adoption: Evidence from the early stage of market penetration in Beijing, China

Kevin Djoenneady Poetera, Sylvia Y. He, Meng Liu, Dan Wu, Christoph Rippe and Sven Müller

Transport Policy, 2025, vol. 171, issue C, 542-565

Abstract: The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is essential for mitigating climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. While numerous studies have examined the primary drivers of EV adoption, the role of license plate policies remains underexplored. To address this gap, we collected stated preference data in Beijing, China, during the early phase of EV market penetration in 2017. Utilizing both of multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit (MXL) models, we assess the influence of several attributes on consumer vehicle choice, including vehicle price, charging infrastructure density, driving range, recharging time, and waiting time for license plates. Moreover, examining elasticities and conducting a series of scenario simulations provides us with a more thorough analysis of the impact of these attributes. The results indicate that purchase price negatively affects the EV adoption, though medium- and high-income customers exhibit a significant willingness to pay for both EVs and higher-end petrol vehicles (PV). Moreover, extended waiting times for license plates and longer recharging durations significantly reduce the market shares of PV and hybrid vehicles (HV). These findings offer valuable insights for researchers and provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to promote electric mobility. The findings of the study can provide insights for future research and can serve as a reference for policymakers and EV operators to implement appropriate policy incentives to promote electric mobility.

Keywords: Purchase decision; Electric vehicle; Price; License plate; Recharging time; Distance to charging stations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.032

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