The impact of air transportation on economic growth: Novel findings from the CS-ARDL model

Pınar Gümüş Akar

Transport Policy, 2025, vol. 173, issue C

Abstract: This study examines the effect of air transportation in terms of its two outputs, passenger and cargo transportation, on economic growth in developing and developed economies. For this purpose, the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags estimator (CS-ARDL) was used with the number of air passengers, cargo volume, and GDP data from 1980 to 2021 for each country group to investigate the relationship between variables in the long and short run. In addition, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimators (CCE) were applied for robustness. Also, the causality relationship between air passenger and economic growth and air freight and economic growth was investigated by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) panel causality methodology. According to the findings of all estimators used, it was determined that air passenger and air cargo volumes positively affected GDP in each group in both the short and long run. Panel causality test (Emirmahmutoglu and Kose, 2011) shows that unidirectional causality runs from air passenger to economic growth in developed and developing countries and unidirectional causality from economic growth to air cargo in developed countries.

Keywords: Air transportation; Air passenger; Air cargo; Economic growth; Panel causality; CS-ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O40 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103788

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