On the (im-)possibility of deriving transport policy implications from hybrid choice models

Caspar Chorus and Maarten Kroesen

Transport Policy, 2014, vol. 36, issue C, 217-222

Abstract: This paper focuses on hybrid choice models of the type increasingly being used by travel demand modelers, which include latent perception and attitude related variables. We argue that, contrary to current practice, these models do not support the derivation of policies that aim to change travel behavior by means of changing the value of a latent variable. An example of such a policy is a marketing campaign which aims to influence the latent variable ‘perceived quality of public transport’, and as a consequence mode choice behavior. We argue that this lack of support is due to the combination of two factors: (i) the latent variable is usually to a non-trivial extent endogenous to the travel choice, precluding inference of causality; and (ii) the data are almost without exception cross-sectional as far as the latent variable is concerned, and as such do not allow for claims concerning changes in the variable at the individual level. When data for the latent variables are cross-sectional, and to the extent that endogeneity of the latent variables cannot be ruled out, these variables should best not be used as targets for travel demand management policies—although they may still be used as input for scenario studies that involve changes in the population over time.

Keywords: Hybrid choice model; Integrated latent variable discrete choice model; Attitudes; Perceptions; Causality; Endogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (67)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X14001905
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:trapol:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:217-222

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.09.001

Access Statistics for this article

Transport Policy is currently edited by Y. Hayashi

More articles in Transport Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().