 Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution dataMiriam Breckner and Uwe Sunde World Development, 2019, vol. 123, issue C, - Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by providing novel evidence about the role of extreme temperature events for armed conflict based on high-frequency high-resolution data for the entire continent of Africa. The analysis of monthly data for 4826 grid cells of 0.75° latitude × longitude over the period 1997–2015 documents a positive effect of the occurrence of temperature extremes on conflict incidence. These effects are larger the more severe the extremes in terms of duration, and are larger in highly densely populated regions, in regions with lower agricultural productivity, and in regions with more pronounced land degradation. The results also point towards heterogeneity of the effect with respect to the type of violence and the crucial role of population dynamics. Considering the consequences of increases in the frequency of extreme events in a long-differences analysis delivers evidence for a positive effect on conflict. Keywords: Global warming; Civil violence; Vulnerability; Population dynamics; Land degradation (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:123:y:2019:i:c:24 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104624 Access Statistics for this article World Development is currently edited by O. T. Coomes More articles in World Development from Elsevier |
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