The transfer of employment structure: Export expansion and the rise of lower-middle-skill occupations in China

Weishan Tan, Guangjun Shen and Guangsu Zhou

World Development, 2025, vol. 189, issue C

Abstract: Job polarization is common in advanced countries due to routine-biased technological changes and globalization. In developing countries, however, the employment structure is left unexplored. This research finds that China has witnessed a reverse trend in the employment structure since 2000. In particular, job counter-polarization was seen due to the disproportionate rise in lower-middle-skill occupations. Further study provides evidence that export expansion increases the employment share of lower-middle-skill occupations. Mechanism analysis shows that export expansion increases routine-tasks intensive occupations, which are also lower-middle-skill occupations. This paper provides new insights into occupational structure based on typical facts in China and examines the hypotheses of routine-biased technological change and globalization from a novel perspective.

Keywords: Employment structure; Export; Lower-middle-skill occupations; Routine task (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F66 J24 J31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:189:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000154

DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106932

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