Geopolitical Risk Shocks: Macroeconomic Effects in Bolivia, Chile, and Peru

Osmar Bolivar Rosales () and Christian Huanto Quispe ()

Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana, 2023, vol. 6, issue 2, 62-83

Abstract: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of geopolitical risk shocks on Bolivia, Chile, and Peru, employing Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) models. Geopolitical risk shocks significantly raise inflation and interest rates in Chile and Peru, with food and energy inflation being the most affected, while Bolivia shows resilience, presumably due to its distinct economic framework. Commodity prices, particularly energy and agriculture, experience persistent impacts, highlighting the importance of commodity-specific dynamics. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated these effects, driving price volatility and global market disruptions. These findings provide insights into some of the transmission mechanisms of geopolitical shocks and highlight the importance of tailored strategies to mitigate their adverse effects.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk; BSVAR; Inflation; interest rates; Economic Growth; commodity prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.economiayfinanzas.gob.bo/sites/default ... IEB_V6_N2_a3_eng.pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.economiayfinanzas.gob.bo/sites/default ... IEB_V6_N2_a3_eng.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:efp:journl:v:6:y:2023:i:2:p:62-83

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana from Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas de Bolivia Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Unidad de Análisis y Estudios Fiscales ().