Real effective exchange rate of the UAH: an assessment of the comparative advantages of Ukrainian goods and forecast for 2013-2014

O. Bilotserkivets S. Shums'ka

Economy and Forecasting, 2013, issue 2, 20-31

Abstract: The article describes the main factors determining the conditions and prospects of Ukrainian exports on foreign markets. Based on the expected dynamics of Ukrainian and world GDP, changes in the terms of trade in goods and services for the CIS, the authors outline the exogenous conditions that describe the opportunities and constraints shaping for domestic products on the markets of different countries. For the analysis of price competitiveness of domestic goods, the article justifies the use of dynamic partial indexes of the real effective exchange rate for specific product groups. The authors present the results of calculations of the dynamics of composite index REER for 2000-2012 calculated on the basis of the information regarding the geographical structure of Ukraine's trade turnover using the consumer market price index as a price indicator. There is a detailed analysis of partial REER calculated for product groups (with two-character UKTZED) during 2000-2012 taking into account the average 2010-2012 geographic structure of exports (for the ""export basket"") on annual basis (2000 taken as starting point). Based on the scenario forecasts, the composite index and partial REERs for 97 product groups, the authors show the export price advantages of the domestic products, which can be obtained with the use of exchange-rate and pricing policies.

Date: 2013
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