Agri-food exports to the EU: outlook and goals
Economy and Forecasting, 2016, issue 1, 83-94
Analysis of dynamics and structure of agri-food exports to the EU has shown that the growth rate of agri-food export is unstable due to high share of raw agricultural goods with high volatility of prices and demand on the world market. Based on the analysis of import share capacity of particular EU markets and EU customs regulations, the author estimates the capabilities to increase exports within and over the tariff quotes. The article provides a list of domestically produced goods that can become competitive on the EU markets when exported in quantities over the tariff quota limits, which includes honey, concentrated juices, processed goods from malt and starch, processed starch, ethanol, sweetcorn, and processed goods from grains. Import tariffs for the quantities over the tariff quota for all other goods, especially livestock products, are de facto prohibitive. Therefore, the long-time priority is to raise the level of tariff quotas. Analysis of the outlooks of the EU dairy products balance shows that significant entrance of domestic producers to the EU markets would face a lot of problems even after the modernization of the production process in accordance with the EU standards. Soybeans, oilseeds meal, casein, honey, fruit juices, nuts, willow, pasta and confectionery are the only leading goods of Ukrainian exports to the EU, whose export volumes can be actually increased. The probability of increase in exports of corn, wheat, and sunflower seeds and oil is low due to the unfavorable mid-term outlook of EU markets. The author defines various measures to be undertaken by executive authorities, producers' associations and producers in order to ensure the competitiveness of domestically produced agri-food goods on the EU markets.
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