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Macrostructural design of the economies of Ukraine and OECD countries

I. Kryuchkova

Economy and Forecasting, 2016, issue 3, 7-28

Abstract: The article presents, for the economies of Ukraine and OECD and some non-OECD countries, the results of comparative analysis of the indicators that give the most significant structural characteristics of both economy as a whole and its separate institutional sectors, which allows to identify, step by step, the main factors that affect the formation of the model of GDP reproduction for each economy. The author proceeds from the fact that, in the course of institutional development, there takes place the process of "polishing" of the rules of interaction between major market participants that influence political decision-making on the levels of taxation, social transfers, public investment, the level of public debt and so on. This, in turn, builds a macro-structural design that broadens or narrows the possibilities for growth of economic potential and the country's ability to sustainable growth. Based on the results of comparisons, the author reveals major structural differences between the economies of Ukraine, OECD countries, China and Russia and proposes to classify the countries into three types: the USA one, where the political and monetary leadership allows an exceed of consumption over production and financing the lion's share of budget expenses due to new borrowings; the Chinese one, where the support of the national currency weakness stimulates exports, but at the same time reduces domestic demand, which results in the situation when the country produces more than it consumes and saves on social transfers and protection of the environment; and the European one as close to the golden middle between those who receive benefits through monetary expansion and those who accumulate foreign currency due to product expansion. It is revealed that European macro-structural design with a moderate level of GFCF includes a generous social component, especially in Scandinavian countries where the high level of current taxes and social contributions is more than compensated by social transfers, including transfers in kind. This prevents the undermining of the economic dynamics, at the same time contributing to human development (with a positive balance maintained in the foreign trade). To reduce the gap with the leading EU countries in terms of per capita gross adjusted disposable income, Ukraine has no alternative but to converge its macro-structural economic design to the harmonized European pattern.

Date: 2016
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