EXCHANGE RATE FORECAST FUTILITY FOR THE TAKA

Dipanwita Barai (), Thomas Fullerton () and Adam G. Walke ()
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Dipanwita Barai: New Mexico State University, USA
Adam G. Walke: University of Texas at El Paso, USA

Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018, vol. 6, issue 2, 1-7

Abstract: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) version of an error correction model based on a balance of payments approach is used to forecast the nominal exchange rate for the Bangladeshi taka. Based on existing trade volumes and trade practices, the bilateral exchange rate of the taka with the dollar is analyzed. Annual frequency data for a four decade period from 1976 to 2015 are utilized for the study. Descriptive statistics, formal inferential tests, and directional accuracy tests are used to assess out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Results indicate that, in spite of good insample estimation diagnostics, the model forecasts do not fare well against random walk benchmarks.

Keywords: Bangladesh; Taka; Bilateral Exchange Rate Forecast Accuracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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