EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The Middle-Income Trap from an International Overview: A Logit Panel Data Analysis

Augusto Ricardo Delgado Narro ()
Additional contact information
Augusto Ricardo Delgado Narro: Waseda University, Japan

Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: This paper analyzes the probabilities of economies to lie into the middle-income trap by using a Logit Panel Data model. We define the trap with more encompassing criteria: average GDPs per capita relative to the US one and GDP per capita growth rates for ten-year averages in both cases. To determine those probabilities, we include two different sets of covariates. Firstly, a set of covariates that might be influenced by policymakers, e.g., inflation, exports, and education. Secondly, another set of covariates that are independent of policymakers’ influence; a trend, a dummy for the international financial crisis, growth rates of world leader economies (US and China), growth rates of continental leader economies, and dummies by continents. We find that domestic variables are essentialto determine the probability of lying into the middle-income trap. Also, the independent covariates are significant. The trend shows that the trap is a stable equilibrium where economies tend to stay for a long time. A global economic crisis can push the countries out of the trap, but the impulse makes them back to lower-income stages. Our model also finds that regional linkages with surrounding economies are essential for middle-income economies

Keywords: Middle-Income Trap; International Economics; Logit Models; Panel Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://eurasianpublications.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/EJEF-8.1.1.pdf (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:1-15

Access Statistics for this article

Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance is currently edited by Xuan Vinh Vo

More articles in Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance from Eurasian Publications
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Esra Barakli ().

 
Page updated 2021-03-10
Handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:1-15